Trade Wars, Brain Drains, and Dirty Kitchens

It’s been unusually slow lately, and apparently it isn’t just us. I have friends across north America who run house-cleaning companies, and many of them are saying the same thing: business has cooled off. That’s one of the joys of running a seasonal business. Some months you’re wondering how you’re going to fit everyone onto the schedule. Other months you stare at the schedule and wonder if the phone has been disconnected. Ups and downs are simply part of the business.

What actually got me thinking about this was my cousin’s wife, who is also in the cleaning industry. She had been lamenting the slowdown, so my cousin messaged me and asked what I thought. I told him basically the same thing I tell myself: sometimes things get slow. Don’t panic. If you do good work, treat people well, and keep showing up, the business tends to come back. And his wife does great work, so I told him not to worry too much. More money will eventually find its way through the door. Hopefully carrying a mop. Still, I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a little voice in the back of my mind whispering, “Yeah…but what if this time is different?”

Our neighbors to the south have decided to experiment with another trade war, and trade wars generally aren’t famous for making business owners sleep better at night. I suspect cooler heads will eventually prevail and some sort of deal will be reached, probably five minutes before everyone drives off the cliff. That seems to be how these things work these days. I could also use this opportunity to share a few thoughts about a certain orange-colored political figure, but I’m going to be polite and demonstrate tremendous personal restraint.

You’re welcome.

So what does all of this mean for Oakville and Canada? My guess is that the next few years could be uncomfortable as Canada adjusts its supply chains, diversifies its trading relationships, and becomes less economically dependent on the United States. Getting weaned off such heavy reliance on one enormous “special” customer probably isn’t a bad thing in the long run. But anyone who has ever tried to remove a five-year-old from an iPad knows that being weaned from something is rarely pleasant while it’s happening.

There may also be an unexpected upside: talent. History is full of periods when political or economic instability caused educated, skilled, ambitious people to pack their bags and look for somewhere else to build their lives. I have a feeling we’ll see more Americans doing exactly that and Canada is an obvious, and much more calm destination. In fact, some of that is already happening.

If Canada plays its cards right, it could benefit from attracting talented entrepreneurs, engineers, doctors, scientists, tradespeople, technology workers, and other productive people who decide they would rather build their futures north of the border. Now, that would be a tremendous opportunity. Of course, there’s one small problem. We’re going to need somewhere to put everybody.

Canada already has enough difficulty with housing, so attracting more people without building more homes would be a little like inviting 40 people to Thanksgiving and then discovering you own six chairs. Hopefully we can figure that part out too.

In the long run, though, I think diversifying our trade relationships while attracting the best people from down south could make Canada, and communities like Oakville, stronger. The difficult part will simply be weathering the adjustment period between where we are now and wherever the economy eventually settles.

So keep your elbows up, welcome our refugees… erm, newcomers from the south, support Canadian businesses, and remember, if the economy gets stressful, work gets overwhelming, and you suddenly realize you haven’t cleaned your dirty kitchen in three months…

… there is absolutely no shame in hiring a local, family-owned cleaning company. Hint… Hint…

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